The US EIA has predicted that US oil markets will have a close balance between supply and demand this year. At the same time, the EIA revised its forecast for crude oil prices to 2025 lower compared to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), published in July.
Despite the recent drop in crude oil prices, the EIA said it expects an increase in the last half of 2024. July saw the price of Brent crude oil close to $81 per barrel (bbl), while the monthly average was $85/bbl. The EIA predicts “Brent prices will reach between $85/bbl and $90/bbl by the end of the year”.
The EIA also revised its forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude prices down to $80.21/bbl for the year, down 2.2% from its earlier forecast of $82.03/bbl.
The EIA expects that the continued reduction in oil production from OPEC + will reduce oil production worldwide until the first quarter of 2025, possibly increasing oil prices.
Global oil inventories, estimated to have declined by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in H1 2024, are expected to decline by 800,000bpd in H2, the EIA said. The reduction in production is partly due to the ongoing production cuts imposed by OPEC+.
The EIA increased its forecast for US oil demand in 2024 by 100,000bpd, bringing it to 20.5 million barrels per day (mbbl/d). It maintained its previous growth forecast for global oil demand for 2024, expecting an annual increase in consumption of 1.1mbbl/d, to a total of 102.9mbbl/d.
Find the most comprehensive Company Information on the market, powered by GlobalData. Save hours of research. Find competitive positions.
Company profile – free sample
Your download email will arrive shortly
We are confident in the exceptional quality of our Company Files. However, we want you to make the best decision for your business, so we are offering a free sample that you can download by submitting the form below.
By GlobalData
The forecast predicts that average daily use of natural gas for electricity generation will be about 46 billion barrels per day in August, a 2% decrease from the month before. ago. It is expected that natural gas production will remain in line with July levels.
The price of Henry Hub is expected to stay below $ 2.50 / MBtu (million units of British thermal unit) until October due to the reduction in consumption and stable production. However, with seasonal increases in district heating demand and increased natural gas supplies from new plants, Henry Hub prices are estimated to be $3.10/MBtu from November to to March.
“The good news from a consumer perspective is that while we expect oil prices to increase, we expect gasoline prices through this year and into next year to remain lower than they have been by 2023,” said EIA Director Joe DeCarolis.
#EIA #predicts #oil #markets #improve #crude #prices #Offshore #Technology